South Korea’s population thinning has begun as the number of deaths outnumbered newborn with a single making up four out of every household for the first time in history due to fast aging and fertility rate at zero zone.

The number of residents registered in Korea came to 51.8 million in late December, down 20,838 from a year earlier, the Ministry of the Interior and Safety revealed Sunday. This is the first time in the country’s history for the overall population to decline.

Birthrates are declining at alarming rates. Korea had 275,815 new births in 2020, down 10.7 percent from the previous year. The number first fell below the 400,000 threshold in 2017 and crossed the 300,000 mark again in just three years.

Over the same period, the number of deaths, however, rose 3.1 percent to 307,764, pulling down the total population.

Single-person households totaled 9.06 million, topping 9 million for the first time last year. They now account for 39.2 percent of all households in the country, an all-time high. Together with two-person households, they make up 62.6 percent of total households, up from 56.6 percent five years ago.

During the same time, the percentage of four-person households or bigger fell to 20.0 percent in 2020 from 25.1 percent in 2016.

As more people choose to live alone or refrain from having kids, the number of the country’s total households climbed to a record 23.09 million, while the average number of members in a household dropped to an all-time low of 2.24 people.

Population aging is accelerating. People aged 60 and older now make up 24.0 percent of the total population, 8.2 percentage points higher from a decade ago. People younger than 20 account for 16.9 percent, down 4.0 percentage points.

The 50s continue to make up the biggest portion at 16.7 percent, followed by 40s at 16.0 percent, 30s at 13.3 percent, 20s at 13.1 percent, 60s at 13.0 percent, teens at 9.2 percent and those younger than 10 at 7.7 percent.

Population decline is more severe in rural areas as urbanization deepened. More than half of the country’s population, or 26 million, now live in the capital Seoul and the surrounding Gyeonggi Province or Incheon city. This is up from 25.9 million in late 2019.

The pace of population decline is expected to accelerate. Korea’s already-low fertility rate continues to drop, from 0.90 in the first quarter of 2020 to 0.84 in the second and third quarters. This is among the lowest in the world, far behind the global average of 2.4 and Europe’s 1.59.

The Bank of Korea (BOK) gave a bleak forecast, expecting the country’s fertility rate to fall even below Statistics Korea’s grim scenario of 0.72 by 2022. The central bank said the coronavirus pandemic is likely to dissuade more young people from getting married or having kids, as the economic blow has been particularly hard on the 20s and 30s. Intensified competition and lifestyle changes due to social distancing are also likely to dampen the chances of marriage, it added.

At the current rate, Korea’s population could halve to 25 million in 40 years’ time by 2060, Korea Economic Research Institute warned.

The working-age population would shrink by 48.1 percent, military enlistments by 38.7 percent and school-age population aged 6 to 21 by 42.8 percent, the think tank projected.

The number of seniors that one worker has to support would rise from 0.22 to 0.98. Today, five Koreans support one senior citizen, but this would change to one worker for one elderly person 40 years from now.

In the face of this rapid population decline, the BOK expected Korea’s economic growth rate to plunge to 0.4 percent in 2026-2035.

By Park Seung-chul

[ⓒ Pulse by Maeil Business Newspaper & mk.co.kr, All rights reserved]