À̹ÌÁö È®´ë Top economists – Peking University National School of Development Professor Justin Yifu Lin, University of Tokyo Professor Sawada Yasuyuki, and KDI School of Public Policy and Management Professor Cho Dong-chul – join World Knowledge Forum session on ¡°Global Economic Outlook 2022¡± on Wednesday. [Photo by Han Joo-hyung]
Inflation hovering at 5 percent level could turn the United States softer on restrictions on Chinese imports next year, a top Chinese economist forecast on Wednesday.
¡°The situation (U.S. restrictions on China may continue¡± amid the rivalry between China and U.S. in trade, according to Justin Yifu Lin, professor of National School of Development at Peking University, during a virtual session on ¡°Global Economic Outlook 2022¡± at World Knowledge Forum in Seoul.
But the conflict could be moderated next year due to the boiling ¡°inflation rate in the U.S.¡± The economist claimed that there might be no other country than China to offer goods at cheaper prices.
Lin discussed post-pandemic global economic order with two leading economists from Seoul and Tokyo – Korea Development Institute (KDI) School of Public Policy and Management Professor Cho Dong-chul and University of Tokyo Professor Sawada Yasuyuki. Lin was senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank in 2008-2012 and is councilor of the State Council and member of the Standing Committee of Chinese People¡¯s Political Consultation Conference.
Although uncertainties surrounding Covid-19 remain will persist, the global economy will fare better next year, they agreed.
Cho projected global economy to expand 6 percent this year from last year and about 5 percent next year.
¡°Economic growth rate will slow down in terms of numbers because we¡¯re not going to have a base effect, but I think next year¡¯s economic growth rate will be higher than the pre-pandemic normal growth rate,¡± the professor said.
Others echoed his view, with Yasuyuki noting that the outlook under Asia Development Bank¡¯s growth forecast for the vast economy will be ¡°positive.¡±
He forecast 4.4 percent growth for U.S. next year and 5 percent this year and Europe 4.3 percent this year and 4.2 percent next year.
À̹ÌÁö È®´ë [Photo by Han Joo-hyung]
Lin expected China¡¯s GDP to grow about 8 percent this year and 6 percent next year, far above International Monetary Fund¡¯s growth projection of 4.9 percent for global economy next year after 6 percent this year.
The top economists expected the impact of the ongoing pandemic will be ¡°far smaller especially for those countries fully vaccinated,¡± Cho said, ¡°mostly advanced countries.¡±
¡°Developing countries will have difficulty in overcoming the pandemic next year,¡± he said.
Policy is also going to be important part of the economy next year, with the U.S. Congress talking about their second round largest-scale stimulus package. The package will likely have a spillover effect to other countries, Cho noted.
Digital, technology-related non-face-to-face industries, and e-commerce industries will remain strong while entertainment and tourism sectors will likely rebound from pandemic fallouts.
By Lee Eun-joo
[¨Ï Pulse by Maeil Business Newspaper & mk.co.kr, All rights reserved]