South Korea’s housing prices are expected to see a long-term decline starting in 2039 amid ultra-low birth rates and an aging population, a study warned on Tuesday.

According to findings presented by Lee Yong-man, a real estate professor at Hansung University, during a seminar hosted by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future on Tuesday, the number of households in the country will increase for a while due to the rise in single-person households, but it will start to decline in 2039, the study showed.

Given that the demand for housing units tends to mirror the movement of the number of households, Korea’s housing prices will inevitably fall.

Lee’s study begins by calculating the total housing demand that affects housing prices. Total housing demand, which is the sum of housing demand by age group, is increasingly influenced by the total number of households, according to Lee.

The problem lies in the fact that the total number of households, which is increasing alongside the rise in single-person households, will eventually enter a downward trend in the near future.

According to Statistics Korea‘s future household projections, annual household growth will drop below 100,000 units by 2033 and then turn negative from 2039 onwards.

Demand for housing units is also likely to peak in 2039 and start to decline afterwards, experts note.

By Ryu Young-wook and Yoon Yeon-hae

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